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Abstract Climate change has the potential to disrupt species interactions across global ecosystems. Ectotherm–endotherm interactions may be especially prone to this risk due to the possible mismatch between the species in physiological response and performance. However, few studies have examined how changing temperatures might differentially impact species' niches or available suitable habitat when they have very different modes of thermoregulation. An ideal system for studying this interaction is the predator–prey system. In this study, we used ecological niche modeling to characterize the niche overlap and examine biogeography in past and future climate conditions of prairie rattlesnakes (Crotalus viridis) and Ord's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys ordii), an endotherm–ectotherm pair typifying a predator–prey species interaction. Our models show a high niche overlap between these two species (D = 0.863 andI = 0.979) and further affirm similar paleoecological distributions during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid‐Holocene (MH). Under future climate change scenarios, we found that prairie rattlesnakes may experience a reduction in overall suitable habitat (RCP 2.6 = −1.82%, 4.5 = −4.62%, 8.5 = −7.34%), whereas Ord's kangaroo rats may experience an increase (RCP 2.6 = 9.8%, 4.5 = 11.71%, 8.5 = 8.37%). We found a shared trend of stable suitable habitat at northern latitudes but reduced suitability in southern portions of the range, and we propose future monitoring and conservation be focused on those areas. Overall, we demonstrate a biogeographic example of how interacting ectotherm–endotherm species may have mismatched responses under climate change scenarios and the models presented here can serve as a starting point for further investigation into the biogeography of these systems.more » « less
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Abstract Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly recognized as a significant threat to global biodiversity conservation. Elucidating the relationship between pathogens and the host microbiome could lead to novel approaches for mitigating disease impacts. Pathogens can alter the host microbiome by inducing dysbiosis, an ecological state characterized by a reduction in bacterial alpha diversity, an increase in pathobionts, or a shift in beta diversity. We used the snake fungal disease (SFD; ophidiomycosis), system to examine how an emerging pathogen may induce dysbiosis across two experimental scales. We used quantitative polymerase chain reaction, bacterial amplicon sequencing, and a deep learning neural network to characterize the skin microbiome of free‐ranging snakes across a broad phylogenetic and spatial extent. Habitat suitability models were used to find variables associated with fungal presence on the landscape. We also conducted a laboratory study of northern watersnakes to examine temporal changes in the skin microbiome following inoculation withOphidiomyces ophidiicola. Patterns characteristic of dysbiosis were found at both scales, as were nonlinear changes in alpha and alterations in beta diversity, although structural‐level and dispersion changes differed between field and laboratory contexts. The neural network was far more accurate (99.8% positive predictive value [PPV]) in predicting disease state than other analytic techniques (36.4% PPV). The genusPseudomonaswas characteristic of disease‐negative microbiomes, whereas, positive snakes were characterized by the pathobiontsChryseobacterium,Paracoccus, andSphingobacterium. Geographic regions suitable forO. ophidiicolahad high pathogen loads (>0.66 maximum sensitivity + specificity). We found that pathogen‐induced dysbiosis of the microbiome followed predictable trends, that disease state could be classified with neural network analyses, and that habitat suitability models predicted habitat for the SFD pathogen.more » « less
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